Signals Inbox·July 18, 2026·Defense Tech

Who is winning the defense tech race?

Anduril is winning the private defense tech race today, but ICEYE and Quantum Systems are much closer than their valuations suggest, while TEKEVER, Helsing and a handful of specialists lead on narrower measures.

The Defense Tech Race Scoreboard

We built the Defense Tech Race Scoreboard to compare the private companies with the strongest credible claims to leadership today. It covers 16 companies across 14 dimensions, including commercial scale, contracts, battlefield use, product maturity, manufacturing, momentum, capital efficiency and valuation support.

The underlying research covers 35 material contracts, 61 products and more than 80 source records. The final Race Score is adjusted for data completeness and evidence quality, so a company cannot climb the ranking solely through precise-looking estimates or ambitious announcements.

The result is not a valuation ranking. Anduril comes first, but ICEYE and Quantum Systems are only 3.4 and 3.5 points behind it. Several much smaller companies also beat highly valued names because they have stronger battlefield records, more efficient funding or better-supported valuations.

The private defense tech race, as of now

Q1Is Anduril really winning defense tech now?

Yes. Anduril is the only private company that leads simultaneously in scale, contracts, product breadth, customers and operating momentum.

When we look at our Defense Tech Race Scoreboard, Anduril leads six of the 14 categories and places in the top three in nine. It also remains first under every weighting we tested, including scenarios that favor battlefield proof, manufacturing or commercial scale.

Its estimated $2.2 billion revenue is more than six times Quantum Systems’ and seven times ICEYE’s. The company also has eight operational product families, around 30 government customers and seven manufacturing sites.

We excluded the full $20 billion ceiling of Anduril’s US Army agreement from backlog. Our base case uses about $5 billion of active backlog and $1.8 billion of identified obligations. That produces a more conservative picture than the headline contract value.

Anduril’s weak point is valuation. At $61 billion, it is worth more than the five European companies in the dataset combined. Investors are already paying for successful execution across factories, aircraft, missiles, drones and software.

Q2Is defense tech becoming a winner-takes-most market?

Yes, revenue, funding and valuation are concentrating rapidly among a small group of defense tech leaders.

Anduril, ICEYE and Quantum Systems account for around 63% of the sample’s estimated revenue, 58% of backlog, 57% of valuation and 51% of completed equity funding. The top five companies control about 70% of revenue, backlog and valuation.

Anduril alone represents 48.5% of estimated revenue and 43% of the sample’s $142 billion combined valuation. Its share of backlog is lower at 37%, reflecting the large sovereign programs accumulated by ICEYE, Quantum Systems and Helsing.

Capability leadership is more distributed. Anduril leads six of our 14 scoring dimensions, while ICEYE dominates capital efficiency and financial sustainability, Quantum Systems leads battlefield proof, TEKEVER leads valuation support and Hadrian ranks first in manufacturing readiness.

The likely market structure is a handful of large platforms surrounded by specialists that control difficult capabilities such as radar intelligence, electronic warfare, manufacturing or maritime autonomy.

How concentrated is the private defense tech market?

Q3Who is the most battle-tested defense tech company today?

Quantum Systems and TEKEVER are tied as the most battle-tested companies, with scores of 96.

Quantum Systems has the broader record. Four of its seven product families are battlefield-proven, and its systems reportedly completed more than 19,000 missions in Ukraine during 2025. Recent programs include a 15,000-unit interceptor order and a 2,000-unit ground-robotics procurement.

TEKEVER has fewer product families but exceptionally clear operating evidence. Its AR3 passed 10,000 operational flight hours in Ukraine, including long-duration intelligence missions in contested conditions.

Helsing ranks third with 90, followed by ICEYE at 88. Eight of the 16 companies score at least 70 for battlefield proof. Their average overall score is 74.5, compared with 53.0 for the rest of the sample.

The most battle-tested private defense tech companies

Q4Is Europe catching the US in defense tech?

Europe is now competitive at the top, although the US still has more capital, more companies and a much larger domestic customer.

Four of the top five companies in our Defense Tech Race Scoreboard are European: ICEYE, Quantum Systems, Helsing and TEKEVER. The five European companies average 74.3, compared with 61.3 for the ten American companies.

Europe’s main advantage is battlefield exposure. Its companies average 88.4 for battlefield proof, against 56.7 for the US group. Quantum Systems, TEKEVER, Helsing and STARK have all used the war in Ukraine to shorten product cycles and secure follow-on procurement.

The US remains much deeper. It contributes ten of the 16 companies and dominates total private capital. Anduril alone is valued at $61 billion, compared with roughly $43.3 billion for all five European companies combined.

Europe is also expensive. Its average valuation-to-revenue multiple is 39.2, above the US average of 33.4. Investors are already pricing in large sovereign orders and the emergence of new European prime contractors.

Q5How much of the defense tech boom is still just prototypes?

Roughly one-third of the products in our dataset remain at the prototype, demonstration or military-trial stage.

Of the 61 products we tracked, 20 have not yet reached a confirmed production contract. Another eight are contracted but have not progressed to documented operational delivery. The remaining 33, or 54%, are already operational or battlefield-proven.

The maturity gap is concentrated among the youngest and most highly valued challengers. CHAOS Industries and Firestorm Labs each have prototype shares of 67%, followed by STARK at 60% and Kela at 50%. Helsing’s figure is lower at 33%, although its newer aircraft and underwater programs remain less mature than its software and strike drones.

ICEYE, TEKEVER, Skydio and Hadrian have no prototype-stage product families in the company-level dataset. Their businesses are narrower, but a larger share of what they sell already exists in an operational form.

The sector has moved beyond demonstrations. Still, investors are assigning multibillion-dollar valuations to several companies whose future product portfolios remain much larger than their delivered ones.

How mature are the 61 products we tracked?

Q6Who is growing fastest in defense tech right now?

Anduril has the strongest operating momentum, even though younger companies report higher percentage growth from smaller bases.

Anduril scores 98 after estimated revenue rose from about $1 billion to $2.2 billion and headcount increased by roughly 55%. That growth spans several operating product families and major production programs.

Helsing and STARK score 96, Quantum Systems 95 and Saronic 94. Helsing more than doubled estimated revenue while expanding into strike-drone production. Quantum Systems also doubled revenue and added interceptors, ground robots and mission software.

STARK’s estimated 700% growth and Saronic’s 1,500% growth start from far smaller revenue bases. Both have strengthened their position through procurement and manufacturing expansion, although their estimates carry less confidence.

Kela and CHAOS also show rapid growth, but public contract and deployment evidence remains thin. Their financing has accelerated faster than their disclosed operating businesses.

Q7Who has actually moved beyond defense pilots?

Anduril, ICEYE and Quantum Systems have the clearest record of converting early programs into repeat government business.

Across the 16 companies, we identified 248 government customers, including 147 repeat customers. That produces an estimated repeat-customer rate of 59%, although the quality and size of those relationships vary considerably.

The contract layer of our Defense Tech Race Scoreboard shows how concentrated the stronger procurement records have become. Anduril, ICEYE, Quantum Systems, Helsing and Shield AI account for $9.74 billion, or 72.5%, of the sample’s total backlog. Together, they represent only five of the 16 companies.

ICEYE and Quantum Systems show the cleanest conversion from announced contract value into identified obligations. Their obligations equal approximately 50% and 54% of disclosed contract ceilings, respectively. Anduril’s ratio is only 8%, largely because its $20 billion US Army agreement is a maximum ceiling rather than committed revenue. Its estimated $5 billion backlog and 18 repeat government customers still give it the strongest commercial platform.

Skydio has the largest number of repeat government customers at 25. Epirus records the highest repeat rate at 80%, but that comes from a base of only five customers. Scale and repetition need to be read together. A high percentage from a handful of programs does not carry the same weight as repeated procurement across dozens of agencies.

Q8Who is turning defense tech funding into real business?

ICEYE leads on capital efficiency, while TEKEVER produces the most revenue and backlog per dollar raised.

ICEYE has raised about $1.3 billion of equity against an estimated $300 million revenue base and $1.74 billion backlog. Its backlog equals 1.34 times completed equity funding, and the company has disclosed positive operating profit and cash flow.

Quantum Systems ranks second. Its estimated $350 million revenue equals 20% of equity funding, while its $1 billion backlog equals 57%.

TEKEVER has the strongest raw ratios. It has raised around $160 million against estimated revenue of $117 million and backlog of $500 million. Its revenue-to-funding ratio reaches 0.73, and backlog-to-funding reaches 3.12.

Anduril ranks fifth. Its commercial scale is far larger, but the company has raised more than $11 billion while financing aircraft, missiles, factories and undersea systems at the same time.

Capital efficiency across the defense tech field

Q9Are defense tech startups actually profitable?

Only two companies in our sample provide explicit public evidence of profitability: ICEYE and Quantum Systems.

ICEYE disclosed more than €100 million in EBITDA for 2025 alongside positive operating cash flow. Quantum Systems reported a double-digit EBITDA margin while continuing to expand production and product breadth.

Together, the two companies represent an estimated $650 million of revenue, or only 14.3% of the sample total. The other 14 businesses do not publicly confirm positive profitability, although the absence of disclosure does not prove that every one is loss-making.

Anduril has the largest revenue base and scores 82 for financial sustainability, but it is still investing heavily in factories, aircraft, missiles and undersea systems. Helsing, Saronic, STARK and CHAOS are also financing aggressive product or manufacturing expansions.

Most of the defense tech race is still supported by rapid revenue growth, government programs and private capital rather than disclosed profits. ICEYE and Quantum Systems stand out because their operating evidence has already reached the income statement.

Q10Who can actually manufacture defense technology at scale?

Hadrian has the highest manufacturing-readiness score, while Anduril leads among companies producing complete military systems.

Hadrian scores 95. Its automated facilities reportedly produce around 10,000 precision components per month, and the company is expanding toward complete defense products.

Anduril follows at 92, supported by seven operating sites across drones, interceptors, rocket motors and underwater systems. Arsenal-1 could widen that advantage, although the facility is still being built and ramped.

ICEYE ranks third with annual capacity of about 50 radar satellites and a target of around 100 by 2028. Saronic and Skydio both score 85. Skydio already produces more than 1,000 drones per month, while Saronic is pursuing a far more capital-intensive shipyard expansion.

Quantum Systems and Helsing each score 82. Both are preparing programs involving thousands of systems, but rapid expansion will test delivery quality and supply chains.

Manufacturing readiness among the leading companies

Q11Who has the strongest defense tech moat?

Anduril has the strongest overall moat, while ICEYE owns the most difficult specialist infrastructure to reproduce.

Anduril scores 95. Lattice connects sensors, autonomous vehicles and weapons, while the company also controls hardware development, manufacturing, operational data and government integrations.

ICEYE scores 94. A competing company would need to build radar satellites, secure repeated launches, operate a large constellation, process imagery quickly and earn the trust of sovereign intelligence customers.

Helsing and Shield AI score 90 through autonomy software that could work across several platforms. Their position will depend on whether governments accept a deeply embedded external software layer or continue demanding more open, replaceable architectures.

Saildrone also scores 90 because of its long maritime operating history and accumulated mission data. Hadrian receives the same score through factory software, automated processes and manufacturing knowledge built across customer programs.

Q12Which defense tech companies look overvalued today?

CHAOS Industries has the hardest valuation to justify, followed by Kela, STARK, Saronic and Helsing.

CHAOS is valued at roughly $4.5 billion against an estimated $40 million of current revenue and $100 million forward. Its forward multiple of 45 is about 259% above the sample median, despite limited disclosed procurement and no repeated battlefield record.

Helsing has much stronger operating evidence, but its $18 billion valuation still represents about 35 times forward revenue. Investors are paying for successful expansion across combat software, drones, aircraft and underwater systems before all four areas have reached comparable maturity.

Saronic trades at roughly 23 times forward revenue. Its maritime contracts and production progress are real, but the valuation already assumes a successful shipyard build and sustained US Navy adoption.

TEKEVER leads the Valuation Reality Scoreboard with a forward multiple of 7.4, supported by battlefield use, government customers and strong capital efficiency. Quantum Systems follows at 11.4 times forward revenue.

Anduril looks expensive in absolute terms, although its estimated forward multiple of 14.2 sits slightly below the sample median. Its revenue, backlog and customer base are also much larger than those of the other highly valued companies.

Which valuations have the strongest support today?

Q13So who is winning the defense tech race?

Anduril is winning overall, with ICEYE and Quantum Systems forming a very close second tier.

Our Defense Tech Race Scoreboard places Anduril first under every weighting tested. Its combination of revenue, contracts, customers, products and manufacturing remains unmatched among private companies.

ICEYE has the strongest business quality. It leads capital efficiency, execution credibility and financial sustainability, backed by positive cash generation and a large backlog.

Quantum Systems has the strongest combination of battlefield evidence and expansion. It ties TEKEVER for the highest battlefield score while moving into interceptors, ground robotics and cross-domain software.

TEKEVER offers the best evidence relative to valuation. Helsing remains Europe’s most credible broad-platform challenger, although its price already assumes substantial success.

The leaders change depending on what we measure. Anduril leads the overall race, ICEYE leads on business quality, Quantum Systems leads on battlefield-backed expansion, and TEKEVER leads on valuation support. The most speculative valuations sit further down the ranking, where investor expectations have moved faster than revenue, deployment and production.